What this does
Teaches the single most protective idea in quantitative trading — the null test — and walks you through designing one for a pattern you believe in: what would this number look like if my trigger meant NOTHING?
What to expect back
You come away with a number for the bend — and either genuine respect for a pattern that beat it, or a graceful funeral for one that didn't. Both are wins.
Works with
No tools. This one is pure thinking, and works before you connect anything.
"It works 65% of the time" is meaningless until you know the base rate. In a rising market, buying after ANY event "works" most of the time — the coin is bent before you flip it. Professionals measure the bend first; this prompt makes that habit yours.
The prompt
next: s8-the-evidence-ledger
S · Sharpening